What this publish covers:
Yearly, Invoice D’Alessandro and I make predictions about the place eCommerce is headed. Listed here are our 11 predictions for 2026, protecting all the things from AI-powered promoting to tariffs to the destiny of life-style e-commerce manufacturers.
- My 5 predictions for 2026
- Invoice’s 6 predictions for 2026
- Why there’s a steak dinner on the road this yr
Fast notice on stakes: we acquired referred to as out final yr for being too beneficiant, grading ourselves on our 2025 predictions. Honest criticism. So this yr, we’re feeding the transcript into Claude and Grok on the finish of 2026 and letting AI declare a winner.
Loser buys the winner a steak dinner. And feeds them the primary chew. (Humiliations galore).
Right here’s what I’m betting on:
My Predictions
1. LLMs will launch advert platforms that make Meta’s concentrating on look primitive.
Meta is aware of your pursuits. ChatGPT is aware of you’re afraid your online business companion resents you, you’ve Googled “indicators of burnout” 4 occasions this month, and also you’re one dangerous quarter away from significantly contemplating promoting.
When OpenAI launches adverts, the concentrating on gained’t simply be exact. It can really feel telepathic. Early movers win huge.
2. Tariffs on China will settle between 30-50%, not larger.
Inflation is creeping up and financial development seems to be mushy. Trump responds to markets, and when the bond market freaked out earlier this yr, tariffs acquired walked again quick. I don’t see him taking pictures a wounded financial system when issues are already shaky.
3. The AI bubble gained’t pop in 2026.
Counter to prevailing opinion right here. The NASDAQ’s ahead PE is round 27x proper now. Throughout the 2000 tech bubble, it was north of 100x. Authorities AI spending can also be roughly 5x what tech spending was again in 2000, adjusted for inflation. The basics look completely different this time.
4. Main platforms will begin testing “verified human” content material badges.
I created a recent X account not too long ago and was shocked. Roughly a 3rd of the movies in my feed regarded AI-generated. Belief is eroding quick. I feel we’ll see at the very least one main platform experiment with certifying content material as human-created this yr.
5. Video and audio enhancing will probably be largely automated at 7/10 high quality.
Descript can virtually do that now. By yr finish, I feel you’ll be capable to drop uncooked footage into an AI, inform it what issues, and get a cultured edit again. Scrappy founders will produce content material that used to require a full manufacturing group.
Invoice’s Predictions
1. 2026 would be the yr of the Okay-shaped financial system.
Large tech and the Magazine 7 proceed to run, possibly up one other 20%+, whereas the actual financial system and common client struggles. For eCommerce, Invoice thinks you both have to go up-market promoting to prosperous shoppers, or go down-market with sharp pricing on necessities. The center is harmful.
2. Inflation will probably be north of three% in 2026.
Invoice sees no political will to chop spending, which suggests continued deficit spending, which suggests inflation. He thinks that is sticky for the subsequent decade, not simply 2026. His recommendation: place your portfolio and your online business for a persistent inflationary setting.
3. AI will utterly take over Meta adverts content material.
Invoice’s seen proof of ideas from huge manufacturers operating pipelines that spit out 100 novel adverts per day. AI reads critiques, pulls model belongings, generates stills and shortly video, and launches immediately by way of the API. He thinks 2026 is when this goes mainstream.
4. The life-style model is useless.
Except you might have robust IP safety or a high 5-10% model, single-digit million eCommerce companies are going to get crushed. Bigger gamers constructing AI-powered machines will outspend you, out-test you, and tolerate larger CACs than you may.
5. M&A will probably be gang busters on the excessive finish and anemic on the low finish.
Offers above $1B are up 19% yr over yr. Offers within the small and mid-size vary dropped 18%. Invoice thinks this continues: top-tier companies will command eye-popping multiples, whereas typical eCommerce manufacturers battle to transact in any respect.
6. Bitcoin will dip beneath $70K however end above $100K.
Invoice sees competing pressures: a struggling client hurts Bitcoin as a threat asset, however inflation helps Bitcoin as digital gold. He thinks volatility comes first half of the yr with a dip beneath $70K, then restoration because the inflation narrative takes maintain.
You possibly can take heed to the total episode right here.
When OpenAI launches adverts, the concentrating on gained’t simply be exact. It can really feel telepathic.
Need an actual peek into the longer term?
Predictions are enjoyable, however they’re not your finest wager for really staying forward of the curve.
What you actually need is to plug right into a braintrust of a thousand seven and eight-figure retailer house owners who’re discussing what’s working, what’s not, and what to anticipate going ahead.
Be part of us contained in the eComFuel group and study from others such as you within the trenches about what to anticipate this yr.
