Phillip Jackson’s media firm, Future Commerce, focuses on traits and developments in enterprise.
The corporate surveyed U.S. buyers in the course of the 2025 vacation season. He says one perception stood out: when AI recommends a product, 77% of respondents go away the platform to purchase on the model’s web site.
Phillip first appeared on the podcast in early 2024. On this our newest dialog, he addressed the downsides of optimized ecommerce websites, the outlook of conventional search, and, sure, the rise of autonomous buying brokers.
The complete audio of our dialog is embedded under. The transcript is edited for size and readability.
Eric Bandholz: Convey us updated.
Phillip Jackson: Future Commerce is a media firm exploring the tradition of commerce by way of newsletters, podcasts, analysis, and occasions.
While you and I final spoke, I bear in mind pondering, “I’m made for this.” It felt like every part I’ve realized over my complete profession was in a single place.
Ecommerce was troublesome once I began in 1999. I spent greater than a decade working for a direct-to-consumer vendor of pure well being merchandise. We hand-coded websites in HTML, ran Google AdWords, and scaled a number of manufacturers.
Bandholz: Is it higher in 2026?
Jackson: I’ve been saying since round 2019 that we’ve reached the best web site. We’ve optimized ecommerce experiences to loss of life, and what’s left is effectivity and tedium.
We do a number of client and government analysis at Future Commerce. In a single examine revealed round 2022, we analyzed about 15 of the world’s highest-traffic ecommerce websites, excluding Amazon. Assume manufacturers like Bathtub & Physique Works and Mattress Bathtub & Past. We eliminated logos and navigation, then confirmed the pages to customers. Most individuals couldn’t inform one web site from one other as a result of they’re functionally similar.
That degree of optimization is highly effective, however it has a draw back: it’s unmemorable. These websites are designed for conversion, not for recall or cultural affect. They’re slippery. You purchase, you allow, and nothing sticks.
You see this in all places in tradition. Netflix is a superb instance. It’s unimaginable how they use knowledge to maximise completion charges, which is why they launch complete seasons directly. The info in all probability proves it really works. However it doesn’t present what’s misplaced: cultural dialog. Reveals launched throughout many weeks stay a part of the tradition for prolonged intervals.
The identical factor has occurred in ecommerce and product design. Web sites, sport utility automobiles, smartphones, and even electrical toothbrushes all converge on the identical type.
Many trade of us hope AI will make ecommerce thrilling once more, however actual innovation requires danger, which few firms are prepared to tackle.
Bandholz: Will marketplaces and AI substitute model web sites?
Jackson: There’s rather a lot packed into that query, and we even have knowledge round it. On the sensible facet, the web site isn’t going anyplace. Advertisers could shift platforms, and AI-driven discovery is clearly altering conduct, particularly amongst Gen Zs. Generative AI websites have turn out to be a trusted supply for product and model discovery.
We researched client AI utilization earlier than and after the 2025 holidays. One perception stood out. When AI recommends a product, buyers overwhelmingly want to go away the platform and go to the model’s web site. Throughout two research, two cohorts, and a number of English-speaking international locations, 77% stated they might fairly click on by way of to the web site than purchase contained in the AI interface.
That challenges the narrative that AI brokers will deal with all buying. I’m bullish on brokers long run, however the web site stays the middle of context, belief, and knowledge for generative engines.
Apparently, AI could have an effect on bodily retail extra shortly than digital. In our knowledge, 35% of Gen Zs and 40% of Gen Xs stated they’d fairly purchase primarily based on an AI suggestion than go to a retailer.
Extra broadly, outdated and new programs at all times coexist. Markets don’t disappear; they evolve. The manufacturers that survive could have sturdy merchandise, a transparent id, and robust relationships. Virtually actually they are going to have web sites. Every part else continues to be up for debate.
Bandholz: Will genAI substitute conventional search?
Jackson: We’re seeing indicators of that shift. Nevertheless, there are financial inquiries to reply. What firms win the AI race? Which client merchandise turn out to be dominant?
Sure, AI is disruptive, however it’s additionally introducing a brand new modality in our relationship with digital tradition. It isn’t only a search field. It’s a unique type of interplay. I see it as complementary fairly than unique. Conventional programs don’t vanish in a single day; they adapt and coexist. AI modifications conduct, however it layers onto present habits fairly than erasing them.
Bandholz: What’s your recommendation to of us beginning in ecommerce?
Jackson: Some degree of funding in genAI visibility is non-negotiable. Shoppers are more and more turning to engines like ChatGPT for product suggestions. If you happen to’re not monitoring whether or not your model exhibits up there, you need to be. It could be the closest factor we now have to true natural discovery.
Past that, many more recent suppliers aren’t dwelling as much as their promised disruption. TikTok Store, for instance, is actually an affiliate channel. It’s highly effective, however it’s not going to alter essentially how everybody retailers.
Bandholz: What main macro traits are you watching?
Jackson: The primary is machine autonomy. Each enterprise, from the smallest startup to the most important enterprise, is pushing for extra automation and productiveness. You see it with self-driving automobiles, supply robots, and last-mile automation. You additionally see it in firms, with programs that function with out human intervention. That shift is occurring quick.
The second drive is human sovereignty, pushed by distrust in establishments. The Edelman Belief Barometer in early 2026 is at a 25-year low. Individuals don’t belief governments, firms, or programs the best way they used to. On the similar time, they now have instruments to confirm claims, construct their very own worldviews, and take management of selections.
Healthcare is an instance. People can now monitor their very own well being and interpret knowledge in ways in which weren’t attainable 5 years in the past.
These two forces — autonomy and sovereignty — can complement one another, however they will additionally collide. Manufacturers that perceive find out how to navigate each, at any scale, will outline the following period of commerce.
Bandholz: How can listeners observe you and attain out?
Jackson: Our web site is FutureCommerce.com. We’re on X, YouTube, Instagram, and LinkedIn. I’m on LinkedIn as effectively.
